Consolidation and expansion of an export-grade asparagus and grape platform in Caborca–Altar, Sonora — combining thirty years of family agricultural operation with a technified expansion financed through structured private debt. A comprehensive investment case covering company structure, regional and macroeconomic context, sector analysis, agroclimatic profile, capital structure, financial projections, risk architecture, and exit strategy. Prepared for institutional review, May 2024.
Scope note: This dossier evaluates exclusively the new $1,800,000 USD private debt facility and the new asparagus and grape production it finances. Pre-existing legacy financing sits in a separate document; the 40 ha of already-mature grape is included only as the cash-flow anchor within this project's own pro forma, exactly as scoped in the source financial model.
Agronegocios La Laguna, S.C. de R.L. de C.V. is a Mexican family agribusiness based in Altar, Sonora, engaged in the production, packing, and commercialization of asparagus and table grapes for the domestic and export markets. The operation traces back to the early 1990s, when the Ortiz family began with alfalfa and sheep farming on the same land, later transitioning into asparagus production in the early 2000s and subsequently expanding into table grapes as the operation matured — three decades of continuous agricultural experience under a single family's direct operational control, led today by Noé Ortiz.
This dossier evaluates a discrete expansion project layered on top of the company's existing, already-productive operation: $1,800,000 USD in structured private debt (100% private capital, 0% development-bank financing) to bring 210 hectares of land in the Altar Desert corridor into full production — 165 productive hectares plus 45 hectares of reserve/infrastructure — split between 80 new hectares of green asparagus and 45 new hectares of industrial-grade grape, alongside 40 hectares of already-mature industrial grape production that anchors immediate cash flow.
This evaluation is scoped exclusively to the new $1,800,000 USD private debt facility and the new asparagus/grape production it finances — the company's pre-existing legacy production and prior financing sit in a separate document and are outside the boundary of this analysis, except where the 40 ha of already-mature grape functions as the cash-flow anchor within this project's own pro forma. All new production — the 80 ha of green asparagus and the 45 ha of new grape — is export-oriented: asparagus is priced FOB Nogales, Arizona, and the entirety of the new grape volume is committed to processing-plant off-take that itself feeds export-grade industrial and juice-grape channels, consistent with Section 05's finding that the large majority of Caborca's grape output moves to export markets.
The Altar Desert corridor around Caborca is, as detailed in Sections 03 and 05, the single most concentrated production and export hub for both crops in Mexico — a structural advantage this project draws on directly rather than needing to build from an unproven location.
What distinguishes this opportunity is the pairing of a mature, cash-generative crop (40 ha of already-producing industrial grape) with two growth vectors — asparagus and new grape hectares — inside a region that is not merely "suitable" for these crops but is, on the numbers developed in Section 05, the dominant national production cluster for both. That combination narrows the project's real risk to execution and ramp-up timing rather than market existence or agroclimatic suitability, both of which are structurally resolved by geography. The remainder of this module develops the regional, macroeconomic, and sector case for that thesis; Module 2 carries it through to capital structure and return metrics.
Agronegocios La Laguna, S.C. de R.L. de C.V.
Altar, Sonora, Mexico — Altar Desert agricultural corridor, adjacent to the Caborca production cluster
Primary Agriculture / Fresh Produce Export — Asparagus & Table/Industrial Grape
Noé Ortiz — Strategic & Operational Direction
Founded in the early 1990s on alfalfa cultivation and sheep ranching, the Ortiz family spent over a decade building technical and financial capacity in water management, plant nutrition, and agricultural commercialization before diversifying into asparagus production in the early 2000s, supported by national agricultural financing programs. Table grape production followed as the operation expanded further, and since late 2020 the company has pursued a technological modernization phase — pressurized irrigation systems, agricultural monitoring and control technology, water-efficiency programs, field infrastructure upgrades, traceability systems, and export logistics optimization — partly financed through structured international private capital.
Beyond its own production, the company also provides technical advisory services to third-party producers — agronomic management of asparagus and grape, irrigation and fertigation system design, pruning and canopy management programs, harvest and post-harvest planning, and commercial linkage with buyers and distributors in both the domestic and export markets. This advisory practice is not part of the financial scope of this dossier, but it is relevant context: it signals a level of technical authority in the region beyond what is typical for an operation of this scale, and it is the kind of asset that typically shortens the learning curve on a capital-intensive expansion of this nature.
A three-decade operating history in the exact same corridor being expanded is a materially different risk profile than a greenfield entrant securing land in a new region — the water rights are already perfected, the soil is already characterized, and the crop-specific know-how already exists in-house rather than needing to be hired in. The relevant diligence question, developed further in Section 06, is not whether the operator can grow asparagus and grape in the Altar Desert — three decades of revealed performance already answers that — but whether the incremental 125 hectares can be brought to full yield within the ramp-up curve assumed in the financial model delivered in Module 2.
The project is located in the Altar Desert (Desierto de Altar), a sub-region of the greater Sonoran Desert in the state of Sonora, in northwestern Mexico, near the municipalities of Caborca and Altar. Despite its extreme aridity — among the driest environments in North America — the region has been converted over more than a century of irrigation development into one of Mexico's most productive agro-export corridors, sustained entirely by deep groundwater extraction rather than surface rainfall.
Caborca, the region's agro-industrial anchor, has in recent years registered record-setting production values in both table grape and asparagula — detailed with sourced figures in Section 05 — precisely because of this combination of favorable soils, high solar radiation, and managed groundwater irrigation, rather than any advantage in natural precipitation.
Asparagus requires a defined winter dormancy period driven by accumulated chill hours to induce uniform spring spear emergence. The Altar Desert's cold winter nights combined with high daytime solar radiation produce exactly this chill-accumulation pattern, while the region's near-total absence of rainfall during the harvest window minimizes fungal pressure and spear damage — a genuine agroclimatic advantage over more humid production regions.
Grapevines benefit from the same high-radiation, low-humidity environment: intense solar exposure drives sugar accumulation (Brix) and color development, while low ambient humidity suppresses the fungal diseases (powdery and downy mildew, botrytis) that are the leading yield and quality risk for grape production in more humid growing regions.
In a desert agricultural economy, water rights are not a peripheral input — they are the primary barrier to entry and the primary determinant of long-run land value. The company's existing, documented CONAGUA concession and its two operating deep wells (detailed with full volumetric figures in Section 06) are therefore the single most important pre-existing asset underpinning this expansion: the project is not seeking to secure new water rights, but to bring already-conceded water more fully into productive use across the incremental hectares.
Agriculture in the Caborca–Altar corridor is highly labor-intensive, particularly during the asparagus harvest window (manual spear cutting) and the grape harvest (manual clusters selection and packing). Regional reporting consistently identifies agricultural labor demand from this corridor as a major seasonal employment driver, drawing workers from southern Mexico and the Sonoran coast — meaning the expansion's labor requirements sit inside an already-functioning regional labor market rather than requiring the company to build a workforce pipeline from nothing.
The Altar Desert's suitability for asparagus and grape is not an assumption unique to this operator — it is precisely why the region has become the national leader in both crops, a point developed with hard production figures in Section 05. What is unique to this operator is the combination of an already-perfected water concession, three decades of site-specific agronomic experience, and an already-producing 40-hectare grape block generating cash flow from year one of the new project — all of which reduce the execution risk that would otherwise attach to any new entrant attempting the same expansion in the same region.
Because this project's revenue is exported in US dollars while its financing and a meaningful share of its costs are exposed to the Mexican macroeconomic and monetary environment, the following 2024 indicators — the most recent full-year closing data available at the time of this dossier — frame the conditions under which the capital structure detailed in Module 2 is being evaluated.
Mexico's GDP reached an all-time nominal high in 2024, equivalent to approximately 1.75% of global GDP.
The peso averaged $18.3 MXN per US dollar in 2024, a 3.3% depreciation versus the 2023 average — still supported by favorable rate differentials and a low current-account deficit.
General inflation eased through 2024 toward the 3% target band, closing the year in the low-to-mid 4% range after peaking above 4.5% in the first half of the year.
Short-term peso rates closed 2024 near 9.5%, reflecting Banxico's gradual easing cycle from the double-digit levels held through the post-pandemic inflation fight.
Mexico's current account deficit remained low and financeable, similar to 2023 and better than initial official 2024 estimates — a key underpinning of peso stability.
Public sector debt closed 2024 at 49.7% of GDP, against a fiscal deficit of approximately 5.7% of GDP for the year.
Banco de México (Banxico) spent 2024 in a gradual, data-dependent easing cycle, reducing its reference rate step-by-step from the double-digit peak reached during the post-pandemic inflation surge, while keeping policy restrictive enough to continue guiding headline inflation back toward its 3% target. This differential between Mexican peso rates and US dollar rates is the backdrop against which this project's 5.70% fixed USD-denominated private debt (detailed in Module 2) should be read: it is priced meaningfully below domestic peso-denominated agricultural credit, and it is denominated in the same currency as the project's export revenue, which removes currency mismatch risk on debt service specifically — a point developed further in Module 2's risk section.
Mexico's economy expanded at a modest pace through 2024 relative to the broader Latin American average, with non-oil exports to the United States — a category that includes agricultural exports such as asparagus and table grape — continuing to function as one of the more resilient growth drivers even against a backdrop of rising US trade-policy uncertainty. The agricultural sector itself showed uneven performance across regions and crops during the year, which reinforces why regional and crop-specific due diligence (Sections 03 and 05) matters more than national-average agricultural statistics for a project of this kind.
Mexican fresh asparagus and table grape exports to the United States continue to benefit from preferential tariff treatment under Chapter 3 (Agriculture) of the USMCA/T-MEC framework, structurally reducing the tariff barrier to entry for the export strategy this project depends on. As with the Echeri Kupanda and Pacific Fruit dossiers, this trade framework is a live policy variable rather than a permanent guarantee, and should continue to be monitored through the life of the financing.
Two macro facts matter most for this specific capital structure: first, the project's financing is dollar-denominated at a fixed 5.70% coupon against dollar-denominated export revenue, which is a materially cleaner currency match than a peso loan serviced by dollar sales; second, Mexico's 2024 fiscal and external accounts — a manageable current-account deficit, a still-elevated but not accelerating public debt ratio, and a peso that depreciated only modestly against the dollar — describe a macro backdrop that is stable rather than benign. Module 2's sensitivity analysis should therefore stress a peso depreciation scenario on the cost side (labor, energy, local inputs) as a plausible upside to margin, consistent with how the Echeri Kupanda dossier modeled its own natural-hedge dynamic, rather than assuming static costs throughout the ten-year horizon.
Sources: World Bank / Trading Economics (Mexico GDP, 2024); Banco de México, Quarterly Report Jan–Mar 2024 and Oct–Dec 2024; SHCP, Cuenta Pública 2024 — Panorama Económico; Trading Economics, Mexico Economic Indicators.
This section establishes, with sourced 2024 figures, the claim made in Sections 01–03: that Caborca and the wider Altar Desert corridor is not a peripheral production zone for these two crops, but the dominant national cluster for both.
During the 2024–2025 agricultural cycle, Sonora produced approximately 167,988 tonnes of asparagus, representing roughly 60% of Mexico's total national output.
The majority of Sonora's asparagus production is concentrated specifically in the municipality of Caborca, long considered the epicenter of Mexico's asparagus agro-industry and one of the principal suppliers to the United States export market.
Sustaining this level of productivity in one of the country's most arid regions has depended directly on the kind of agricultural technology — pressurized drip irrigation, automated pumping, and precision fertigation — that this project's capital plan (Module 2) is built to deploy across the new 80-hectare asparagus block.
Sonora's 2024 table grape harvest reached a production value exceeding $10 billion MXN, across 16,867 hectares planted, confirming the state's position as Mexico's leading table grape producer nationally.
Caborca alone accounted for 4,194 of those hectares, producing 77,589 tonnes of table grape worth approximately $2.51 billion MXN in 2024 — a result that tied the region's all-time historical production record set the prior year.
Regional industry representatives report that approximately 70% of Caborca's table grape production is destined for export markets, predominantly the United States, with the remainder sold domestically.
Mexico's federal agriculture ministry has, following multi-year negotiations, secured authorization from South Korea for ten packing facilities and nineteen production units across Sonora — including Caborca — to export table grape, broadening the destination-market base beyond the traditional US-concentrated model.
Caborca's grape sector is also notable for varietal diversification — more than 30 distinct grape varieties are cultivated in the region, led commercially by Flame, Sugraone, and Sweet Globe — which supports a longer effective marketing window and reduces exposure to any single variety's price cycle.
Regional industry sources consistently describe asparagus and table grape as the two highest-value agricultural export products in Sonora, together capturing a substantial share of the state's total agricultural export revenue, and as the leading source of formal seasonal agricultural employment in the Caborca–Altar corridor — reinforcing the labor-market context described in Section 03.4.
The sector data above should be read as the market-existence half of the investment thesis, not the project-specific half — Section 05 establishes that Caborca-grown asparagus and grape reliably find buyers at scale, both domestically and via an expanding set of export destinations; it does not, by itself, establish that this specific 125-hectare expansion will hit the yield curve, pricing, and cost assumptions carried into Module 2's financial model. Institutional readers should treat the two as complementary: regional market depth de-risks the demand side, while the financial model in Module 2 should be the primary object of diligence on execution risk.
Sources: SIAP/SADER (national production series); Oficina de Información Agropecuaria y Pesquera del Estado de Sonora (OIAPES/Sagarhpa), 2024 cycle data; El Imparcial, Luz Noticias, Telemax, and Gobierno de Sonora press releases (2024–2025); Centro de Investigación en Alimentación y Desarrollo (CIAD); Secretaría de Agricultura y Desarrollo Rural (SADER), South Korea market-access announcement.
The following technical parameters, provided directly in the company's project specification, describe the physical basis for the yield assumptions that will be carried into Module 2's financial model.
250 to 350 chill hours annually (≤7.2°C), suitable for asparagus winter dormancy and grapevine floral induction.
2,100 mm/year — an arid continental climate with high solar radiation, favorable for photosynthesis and Brix (sugar) development in grape.
Sandy loam to sandy clay loam, effective depth greater than 1.20 m, free internal drainage, pH 7.8–8.2, electrical conductivity (EC) below 2.5 dS/m.
Two deep wells, 10-inch diameter, fully electrified with 150 HP submersible pumps — combined discharge of 95 liters per second.
The company holds a valid CONAGUA concession title for 1,200,000 m³/year. The incremental water demand of the new 125-hectare expansion is calculated as follows:
| Crop / New Hectares | Demand (m³/ha/year) | Total Demand (m³/year) |
|---|---|---|
| Green Asparagus (80 ha) | 7,500 | 600,000 |
| Industrial Grape — new + existing combined (85 ha) | 4,000 | 340,000 |
| Total Projected Consumption | — | 940,000 |
At full build-out, the project is projected to consume 940,000 m³/year against a concession of 1,200,000 m³/year — a utilization rate of 78.33%, leaving a 21.67% hydraulic safety margin. In a region where water rights are the binding structural constraint on agricultural expansion (Section 03.3), this margin is one of the more important risk indicators in the entire dossier, and it will be cross-referenced against the drought/water-stress scenario in Module 2's risk section.
A 21.67% hydraulic safety margin is comfortable but not unlimited — it should be interpreted as headroom for a normal year-to-year variability in effective irrigation efficiency, not as capacity for further hectare expansion beyond the 210 hectares (165 productive + 45 reserve) already contemplated in this plan. Module 2's risk section will treat groundwater drawdown and any future CONAGUA concession adjustment as a named risk category, consistent with how water and currency risk were treated as first-tier categories in both the Echeri Kupanda and Pacific Fruit dossiers.
To bring the 210-hectare site (165 productive + 45 reserve/infrastructure hectares) into full commercial production, the project requires $1,800,000 USD, structured as 100% private debt (0% development-bank financing) at a fixed 5.70% annual USD coupon. The capital is deployed strictly according to the itemized allocation below.
| Investment Category | Technical Description | Total Cost (USD) | % of CapEx |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land Preparation | Deep subsoiling (1.0 m), disc harrowing and laser leveling — 125 new ha | $150,000.00 | 8.33% |
| Biological Material | Certified UC-115 asparagus crowns (80 ha) + grape rootstock (45 ha) | $480,000.00 | 26.67% |
| Irrigation System | Subsurface drip tape (asparagus) / self-regulating hose (grape) + automated head unit | $390,000.00 | 21.67% |
| Grape Trellising | Galvanized steel posts, wire mesh and conduction network — 45 new ha | $180,000.00 | 10.00% |
| Electrification / Wells | Frequency drives, automation and interconnection of both 10" wells | $110,000.00 | 6.11% |
| Working Capital (OpEx Reserve) | Fertilization, energy and labor reserve fund through the grace period (M1–M10) | $390,000.00 | 21.67% |
| Engineering & Supervision | Agricultural supervision fees, topography and permitting | $100,000.00 | 5.56% |
| Total CapEx & Start-Up | — | $1,800,000.00 | 100.00% |
The financing carries a 10-month grace period on principal: Year 1 requires only a single interest-only payment of $102,600 USD in Month 10, giving the operation a full first-year window to complete land preparation, planting, trellising, and irrigation automation before the first full annuity payment falls due in Year 2. This structuring directly reflects the biological ramp-up curve detailed in Section 08.1 — neither asparagus nor grape produces a commercial harvest in Year 1.
The CapEx structure is worth reading against the yield curves in Section 08.1: because both crops require a multi-year ramp to full production, the 10-month grace period and the ring-fenced working-capital reserve are not a financing convenience — they are the mechanism that prevents the project from needing debt service out of cash flow before any cash flow exists. The relevant diligence question is whether $390,000 USD of working capital is sufficient to carry payroll, energy, and input costs through a 10-month pre-revenue window across 125 new hectares; that figure should be cross-checked against the granular OpEx build in Section 08.2 before being treated as fully proven.
Revenue is built bottom-up from three yield curves: the new 80 ha of green asparagus, the new 45 ha of grape, and the 40 ha of already-mature grape used as the project's cash-flow anchor from Year 1.
Density: 33,000 plants/ha. Year 1: 0 t/ha (root development). Year 2: 3.5 t/ha (partial opening harvest, months 11–12). Year 3: 8.5 t/ha (maturation phase). Years 4–10: 11.0 t/ha (stabilized full production).
Price: $3,000 USD/tonne, FOB Nogales, Arizona (weighted average, export).
Year 1: 0 t/ha. Year 2: 4.0 t/ha. Year 3: 12.0 t/ha. Year 4 onward: 18.0 t/ha (stabilized).
Price: $500 USD/tonne, delivered to processing plant off-take (export-grade industrial/juice channel).
Stabilized yield: 22.0 t/ha, constant across Years 1–10 — the project's baseline cash-flow anchor.
Fixed Annual Revenue: 40 ha × 22 t/ha × $500 USD/t = $440,000 USD/year.
Principal: $1,800,000.00 USD · Annual Rate: 5.70% USD fixed · Term: 10 years (120 months) · Year 1: principal grace period, interest-only payment of $102,600.00 USD in Month 10 · Years 2–10: 9 fixed annual annuities of $261,195.45 USD (principal + interest).
| Year | Beginning Balance | Total Annuity | Interest Payment | Principal Amortization | Ending Balance | DSCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1,800,000.00 | $102,600.00 | $102,600.00 | $0.00 | $1,800,000.00 | 1.29x |
| Year 2 | $1,800,000.00 | $261,195.45 | $102,600.00 | $158,595.45 | $1,641,404.55 | 3.77x |
| Year 3 | $1,641,404.55 | $261,195.45 | $93,560.06 | $167,635.39 | $1,473,769.16 | 5.75x |
| Year 4 | $1,473,769.16 | $261,195.45 | $84,004.84 | $177,190.61 | $1,296,578.55 | 5.75x |
| Year 5 | $1,296,578.55 | $261,195.45 | $73,904.98 | $187,290.47 | $1,109,288.08 | 5.75x |
| Year 6 | $1,109,288.08 | $261,195.45 | $63,229.42 | $197,966.03 | $911,322.05 | 5.75x |
| Year 7 | $911,322.05 | $261,195.45 | $51,945.36 | $209,250.09 | $702,071.96 | 5.75x |
| Year 8 | $702,071.96 | $261,195.45 | $40,018.10 | $221,177.35 | $480,894.61 | 5.75x |
| Year 9 | $480,894.61 | $261,195.45 | $27,410.99 | $233,784.46 | $247,110.15 | 5.75x |
| Year 10 | $247,110.15 | $261,195.45 | $14,085.28 | $247,110.15 | $0.00 | 5.75x |
Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR) clears the typical 1.25x bank minimum from Year 1 (1.29x, under the interest-only grace payment), and stabilizes at 5.75x from Year 3 onward once the asparagus block reaches maturation — a wide cushion relative to standard covenant thresholds.
The table below presents the complete pro forma exactly as scoped: new asparagus revenue, new grape revenue, and the existing 40 ha mature-grape revenue used solely as the project's cash-flow anchor. Years 6–10 are shown discretely (rather than averaged) by carrying the exact year-by-year interest and principal figures from Section 8.3 through the tax and FCFE lines — the underlying revenue, OpEx, EBITDA, and D&A are flat from Year 4 onward per the source model.
| Line Item | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 | Year 7 | Year 8 | Year 9 | Year 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue — Existing Grape (40 ha) | $440,000 | $440,000 | $440,000 | $440,000 | $440,000 | $440,000 | $440,000 | $440,000 | $440,000 | $440,000 |
| Revenue — New Grape (45 ha) | $0 | $90,000 | $270,000 | $405,000 | $405,000 | $405,000 | $405,000 | $405,000 | $405,000 | $405,000 |
| Revenue — Asparagus (80 ha) | $792,000 | $2,005,500 | $2,865,000 | $2,730,000 | $2,730,000 | $2,730,000 | $2,730,000 | $2,730,000 | $2,730,000 | $2,730,000 |
| Total Sales | $1,232,000 | $2,535,500 | $3,575,000 | $3,575,000 | $3,575,000 | $3,575,000 | $3,575,000 | $3,575,000 | $3,575,000 | $3,575,000 |
| OpEx — Grape (85 ha total) | ($160,000) | ($270,000) | ($340,000) | ($340,000) | ($340,000) | ($340,000) | ($340,000) | ($340,000) | ($340,000) | ($340,000) |
| OpEx — Asparagus (80 ha) | ($940,000) | ($1,280,000) | ($1,732,500) | ($1,732,500) | ($1,732,500) | ($1,732,500) | ($1,732,500) | ($1,732,500) | ($1,732,500) | ($1,732,500) |
| EBITDA | $132,000 | $985,500 | $1,502,500 | $1,502,500 | $1,502,500 | $1,502,500 | $1,502,500 | $1,502,500 | $1,502,500 | $1,502,500 |
| EBITDA Margin | 10.71% | 38.87% | 42.03% | 42.03% | 42.03% | 42.03% | 42.03% | 42.03% | 42.03% | 42.03% |
| Depreciation | ($227,778) | ($227,778) | ($227,778) | ($227,778) | ($227,778) | ($227,778) | ($227,778) | ($227,778) | ($227,778) | ($227,778) |
| EBIT | ($95,778) | $757,722 | $1,274,722 | $1,274,722 | $1,274,722 | $1,274,722 | $1,274,722 | $1,274,722 | $1,274,722 | $1,274,722 |
| Interest Expense (Private Debt) | ($102,600) | ($102,600) | ($93,560) | ($84,005) | ($73,905) | ($63,229) | ($51,945) | ($40,018) | ($27,411) | ($14,085) |
| EBT (Pre-Tax Income) | ($198,378) | $655,122 | $1,181,162 | $1,190,717 | $1,200,817 | $1,211,493 | $1,222,777 | $1,234,704 | $1,247,311 | $1,260,637 |
| Corporate Income Tax (30%) | $0 | ($196,537) | ($354,349) | ($357,215) | ($360,245) | ($363,448) | ($366,833) | ($370,411) | ($374,193) | ($378,191) |
| Net Income | ($198,378) | $458,586 | $826,814 | $833,502 | $840,572 | $848,045 | $855,944 | $864,293 | $873,118 | $882,446 |
| (+) Depreciation Add-Back | $227,778 | $227,778 | $227,778 | $227,778 | $227,778 | $227,778 | $227,778 | $227,778 | $227,778 | $227,778 |
| (−) Debt Principal Amortization | $0 | ($158,595) | ($167,635) | ($177,191) | ($187,290) | ($197,966) | ($209,250) | ($221,177) | ($233,784) | ($247,110) |
| Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) | $29,400 | $527,768 | $886,957 | $884,089 | $881,060 | $877,857 | $874,472 | $870,893 | $867,111 | $863,114 |
Note: Years 6–10 were disaggregated by KBP from the source model's "Years 6–10 (average)" presentation, using the exact year-by-year interest and principal figures in the debt amortization schedule (Section 8.3). Averaging these five discrete years reproduces the source document's reported averages (EBT ≈ $1,235,384; Tax ≈ $370,615; Net Income ≈ $864,769; FCFE ≈ $870,682) to within normal rounding.
Summed across the ten-year hold, cumulative FCFE reaches approximately $7,614,082 USD against the $1,800,000 USD principal — consistent with the 7.55x MOIC reported in Section 8.8.
Stress-testing the project's unlevered IRR against simultaneous variation in the asparagus FOB Nogales price and the stabilized asparagus yield per hectare — the two variables with the greatest individual weight on project economics.
Reading the matrix: even under simultaneous 25% downside stress on both yield (8.25 t/ha) and price ($2,250/t), the project still returns a 16.40% unlevered IRR — comfortably above the 8.92% WACC. The base case (11.0 t/ha, $3,000/t) sits inside the matrix rather than at its edge, and the project only falls below its own cost of capital under stress considerably more severe than the range modeled here.
Ke = Rf + βL × ERP + Country Risk
Ke = 4.25% + (1.15 × 5.50%) + 2.20% = 12.78%
WACC = (E/V × Ke) + (D/V × Kd × (1−t))
WACC = (0.561 × 12.78%) + (0.439 × 5.70% × 0.70)
WACC = 7.17% + 1.75% = 8.92%
Every project return metric in this dossier (NPV, sensitivity thresholds) is benchmarked against this 8.92% hurdle rate.
Target variable: stabilized EBITDA in Year 3 ($1,502,500 USD base case).
$1,492,400.00 USD (standard deviation: $225,100.00 USD)
$1,020,000.00 USD
0.02% probability of DSCR falling below 1.0x across the simulation
Even at the simulated 5th percentile, EBITDA of $1.02M USD still covers the $261,195.45 annual debt annuity by roughly 3.9x — the debt structure is robust to normal-range operating variance.
| Component | Value (USD) |
|---|---|
| Stabilized EBITDA — Year 10 | $1,502,500.00 |
| Agribusiness Sector Exit Multiple | 6.5x EBITDA |
| Enterprise Value — Year 10 | $9,766,250.00 |
| (−) Outstanding Debt — Year 10 | $0.00 |
| Net Equity Value (Equity Value) | $9,766,250.00 |
| Total Cumulative FCFE Distributed (Years 1–10) | $7,614,082.00 |
| MOIC / Multiple on Invested Capital | 7.55x Return on Equity |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total Investment (CapEx + Pre-Operating OpEx) | $1,800,000.00 USD |
| Financing Structure | 100% Private Debt / 0% Development Bank |
| Contracted Interest Rate | 5.70% Annual Fixed (USD) |
| Loan Term / Grace Period | 10 Years / 10 Months |
| Project IRR (Unlevered) | 38.37% |
| Equity IRR (Levered) | 44.12% |
| NPV @ 8.92% WACC | $4,782,105.00 USD |
| Payback Period | 3.2 Years |
| Exit Equity Value (Year 10) | $9,766,250.00 USD |
The financial architecture above is intentionally granular — yield curve, per-hectare OpEx, year-by-year debt service, and a bidimensional sensitivity grid — so that a credit committee or private-capital allocator can trace the 38.37% project IRR back to its underlying mechanics rather than accepting it as a summary claim. The single most important number in this section is arguably not the headline IRR but the sensitivity floor in 8.5: a simultaneous 25% miss on both price and yield still clears the project's own cost of capital. That said, the WACC in 8.6 assumes a 1.15 beta and a 2.20% Mexico country-risk premium that were provided as inputs rather than derived here — an institutional lender should independently confirm both before treating the 8.92% hurdle rate as fixed.
Risk: the project operates at 78.33% utilization of its CONAGUA concession (Section 06.2); sustained aquifer drawdown or a future concession reduction could constrain the water available to the new hectares.
Mitigation: a 21.67% hydraulic safety margin is retained by design; drip and self-regulating irrigation systems (Section 07) are specified for water-use efficiency rather than flood irrigation.
Risk: both asparagus FOB pricing and processing-plant grape pricing are exposed to international supply/demand swings.
Mitigation: Section 8.5's sensitivity matrix shows the project clears its WACC hurdle even under a simultaneous 25% price and yield shock; the dual-crop model also diversifies single-commodity exposure.
Risk: asparagus and grape both require multi-year ramp periods (Section 8.1) before reaching stabilized yield; delays would push break-even and debt coverage later than modeled.
Mitigation: 30 years of site-specific agronomic experience (Section 02) and a 10-month interest-only grace period (Section 07.1) sized to the ramp curve.
Risk: the $1,800,000 USD facility is dollar-denominated, while a portion of operating costs (labor, local inputs) are peso-denominated.
Mitigation: both asparagus and grape revenue are dollar-priced at export/processing off-take, providing a natural currency match for debt service specifically (Section 04.1); peso depreciation would tend to compress local costs in dollar terms, reinforcing rather than threatening this hedge.
Risk: the project is concentrated in two crops within a single desert micro-region.
Mitigation: asparagus and grape have different harvest windows and cost structures, providing some internal diversification; both crops benefit from the same regional infrastructure and labor market (Section 03), avoiding the added execution risk of a third, unfamiliar crop.
Risk: asparagus dormancy and grape floral induction both depend on accumulated winter chill hours (250–350 HF/year); an anomalously warm winter could compress or delay the harvest curve assumed in Section 8.1.
Mitigation: the 250–350 chill-hour range reflects multi-year regional norms rather than a single favorable year; continuous monitoring of accumulation against the historical baseline is recommended as a standing management practice.
From a lender's standpoint, the combination of a 1.29x–5.75x DSCR range (Section 8.3), a 0.02% simulated probability of covenant breach (Section 8.7), and an already-producing 40 ha cash-flow anchor from Year 1 places this credit meaningfully inside standard private agricultural lending risk tolerances — the residual risk is concentrated in execution timing rather than in debt-service capacity itself.
Of the six risk categories above, hydric risk and execution/ramp-up risk are the two most worth monitoring actively rather than treating as adequately mitigated by design: both are structural features of operating in the Altar Desert that no amount of capital fully eliminates. The currency and price risks, by contrast, are already well-hedged by the dollar-denominated, export-priced revenue structure described throughout this dossier.
As the expanded platform reaches stabilized production, agro-industrial buyers seeking direct exposure to Sonora's asparagus and grape export corridor represent a natural strategic acquirer.
Following the debt facility's full amortization in Year 10 (Section 8.3), the now-unlevered asset could support a recapitalization to fund further hectare expansion within the existing CONAGUA concession's remaining margin.
For the Ortiz family's ownership, the project is equally viable as a long-term, debt-free cash-generating asset from Year 11 onward, rather than a sale event — consistent with the family's three-decade operating horizon.
Expanding processing-plant off-take relationships or export-market linkages (including newly authorized destinations such as South Korea, Section 05.2) could be structured as exclusive supply alliances ahead of a full exit.
The Agronegocios La Laguna expansion combines a proven operator, a structurally advantaged desert production region, an already-cash-generative anchor crop, and a debt structure sized to the biological ramp curve of both new crops. The requested $1,800,000 USD in private debt is projected to generate a 38.37% unlevered project IRR, a 44.12% levered equity IRR, and a 7.55x multiple on invested capital by Year 10 — metrics that, per Section 8.5's sensitivity analysis, hold up under meaningfully adverse combined price and yield stress.
The four exit paths above are not mutually exclusive: the long-term cash-flow hold is, in practice, the default state once the debt is retired in Year 10, with the strategic-acquisition and recapitalization paths available as optionality on top of it rather than as competing outcomes. Investors should treat the cash-flow hold as the base case and the other three as upside scenarios layered on top.
The complete underlying model includes the following supporting exhibits, fully integrated into Sections 07–08 above:
This document was prepared by KBP Business & Projects under the direction of Jaudiel Katawra, based on the project specification and financial dossier provided by Agronegocios La Laguna, S.C. de R.L. de C.V., cross-referenced against public 2024 macroeconomic and sector data (Banco de México, SHCP, SIAP/SADER, OIAPES/Sagarhpa, World Bank/Trading Economics). Boxes marked "KBP Perspective" reflect the advisory's independent commentary and are provided to contextualize the underlying financial model for institutional readers; they do not alter, and should be read alongside, the company's own representations. This evaluation is scoped exclusively to the new $1,800,000 USD private debt facility and the new asparagus and grape production it finances, per client instruction; the company's pre-existing legacy production and financing are addressed in a separate document.